Raybon’s 2019 Oscars Betting Guide: Odds, Picks & Best Values
The expert prediction data from GoldDerby.com is most likely the closest thing we have to tracking”sharp” action for award shows. While they do not always nail the winner (who does?) , their accuracy has been in the 66-92% range since 2011. The key is that the experts have been dead as far as the films for which they do not vote, which allows us to effectively narrow down each class to just the contenders with accurate shots of winning.
The proportion of the pro vote a nominee gets in a particular group can be treated as its”true” likelihood, which may then be compared to actual gaming chances for that category to find out which bets offer you the most value.
Here is a table comparing a candidate’s true chance of winning based on the exports together with the probability implied from the betting odds for a variety of categories, sorted by value.
Be sure to check back frequently up until 8 p.m. lock, as I’ll be upgrading if chances new and shift values emerge.
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