Raybon’s 2019 Oscars Betting Guide: Odds, Picks & Best Values
The expert prediction info from GoldDerby.com is most likely the closest thing we have to monitoring”sharp” activity for award shows. While they don’t always pinpoint the winner (who does?) , their accuracy has been in the 66-92% array since 2011. The key is that the experts have been dead on as far as the movies for which they don’t vote, allowing us to effectively narrow down every category to just the contenders with accurate shots of winning.
The proportion of the expert vote a nominee has in a specific category can be treated as its”true” odds, which can subsequently be compared to actual betting odds for that category to determine which stakes offer you the maximum value.
Here’s a table comparing a candidate’s true chance of winning based on the exports with the probability implied from the betting odds for a variety of categories, sorted by value.
Be sure to check back regularly up until 8 p.m. lock, as I’ll be upgrading if odds new and shift values emerge.
Read more here: http://dayvsnight.com/?p=20292