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Raybon’s 2019 Oscars Betting Guide: Odds, Picks & Best Values

The expert prediction info from is most likely the closest thing we have to tracking”sharp” activity for award shows. While they do not always pinpoint the winner (who does?) , their accuracy has been in the 66-92% range since 2011. The secret is that the pros have been dead on as far as the films for which they do not vote, allowing us to effectively narrow down every category to just the contenders with true shots of winning.
The proportion of the pro vote a nominee gets in a particular category can be treated because its”true” odds, which can subsequently be compared to actual betting odds for that class to determine which stakes offer the most value.
Here’s a table comparing a candidate’s true probability of winning based on the exports together with the probability implied by the gambling odds for various categories, sorted by value.
Be sure to check back regularly up till 8 pm lock, as I will be upgrading if odds shift and new values emerge.

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