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Raybon’s 2019 Oscars Betting Guide: Odds, Picks & Best Values

The specialist prediction info from GoldDerby.com is most likely the closest thing we’ve got to tracking”sharp” activity for award shows. While they don’t always pinpoint the winner (who does?) , their accuracy has been in the 66-92% array since 2011. The key is that the experts are dead as far as the movies for which they don’t vote, allowing us to effectively narrow down every category to only the contenders with true shots of winning.
The proportion of this expert vote a nominee has in a particular group can be treated as its”true” odds, which can subsequently be compared to the actual gaming chances for that category to determine which stakes offer the most value.
Here’s a table comparing a candidate’s true probability of winning based on the exports together with the probability implied by the betting odds for various categories, sorted by value.
Make sure you check back regularly up till 8 pm lock, as I will be upgrading if odds new and shift values emerge.

Read more here: http://dayvsnight.com/?p=20292